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The New Electoral Equilibrium

Posted on 10/05/26 in Politics, Uncategorized

Following Thursday’s local elections, according to that scoundrel Curtice (who loves to ruin election night by telling us the result, redundantly, three nanoseconds after polls close), the British electorate is volatile with much uncertainty. This is false. While it is true that, as Zack Polanski says, the two party system is finished, the post-Brexit shuffle has run its course, and the electorate has settled down into a set of tribes connected, however loosely, to parties with loyalties and preferences that are fairly easily stated.

I voted: Labour
My demographic is: Wealthy and/or over-educated
I resemble: Polly Toynbee
I admire: Sir David Attenborough
I love: The poor, victims for whom I have infinite compassion
I hate: The poor, ingrates who never do what I think they ought to do

I voted: Lib Dem
My demographic is: Very wealthy and/or smug
I resemble: Terry & June
I admire: Sir David Attenborough
I love: The view from my conservatory across the fields down to the river
I hate: Anyone who wants to solve the housing shortage by building houses

I voted: Tory
My demographic is: Boring and/or very boring
I resemble: Richard Wattis
I admire: Sir David Attenborough
I love: Anyone normal
I hate: Anyone abnormal

I voted: Green
My demographic is: Children and/or immature students
I resemble: Rik out of the Young Ones
I admire: Chris Packham
I love: Anyone who makes loud sacrifices to save the planet, such as me, when I recycle my pizza boxes or glue myself to things
I hate: Anyone who does a fair day’s work for a fair day’s pay

I voted: Reform
My demographic is: Working class and/or exasperated by regulations and restrictions, especially if they apply to me
I resemble: Alf Garnett
I admire: Alf Garnett
I love: Thugs, bully-boys, psychopaths, sacked policemen, security guards, sacked security guards, racialists, Paki-bashers, queer-bashers, Chink-bashers, anybody-bashers, rear Admirals, queer admirals, Vice Admirals, fascists, neo-fascists, crypto-fascists, loyalists, neo-loyalists, crypto-loyalists^*
I hate: Forces of anarchy, wreckers of law and order, Communists, Maoists, Trotskyists, neo-Trotskyists, crypto-Trotskyists, union leaders, Communist union leaders, atheists, agnostics, long-haired weirdos, short-haired weirdos, vandals, hooligans, football supporters, namby-pamby probation officers, rapists, papists, papist rapists, foreign surgeons, headshrinkers, Wedgwood Benn, keg bitter, punk rock, glue-sniffers, Play For Today, squatters, Clive Jenkins, Roy Jenkins, up Jenkins, up everybody’s, Chinese restaurants^*
^*[An analysis that cannot be bettered, from David Nobbs, The Fall and Rise of Reggie Perrin]

I voted: SNP
My demographic is: See Labour/Green
I resemble: Billy Connolly
I admire: Neil Oliver
I love: Hills, heather, odd clothes, wailing music
I hate: The English

I voted: Plaid Cymru
My demographic is: See Labour/Green
I resemble: Max Boyce
I admire: Huw Edwards
I love: Hills, slate, rain, odd clothes, dreary music
I hate: The English

I voted: Ulster Unionist
My demographic is: This side of the big wall
I resemble: Ian Paisley
I admire: William III
I love: Grievances
I hate: Left footers

I voted: Sinn Fein
My demographic is: The other side of the big wall
I resemble: Jimmy Cricket
I admire: Dave Allen
I love: Grievances
I hate: Proddies

Each of these groups of necessity has a rather distorted view of how essential it is to the smooth running of the country. Some, of course, don’t want the country to run smoothly at all. All of them are paranoid, and want revenge on someone for something. This means that fluid coalitions will form against some groups, and fall apart to be replaced by others, depending on who hates whom most. This may make prediction more difficult in electoral contexts, but it is not, pace the wretched Curtice, a complex picture at all.

(Image of John Curtice from Wikimedia, licensed under the Creative Commons Attribute 3.0 licence)